Should I stay or should I go: Nate Davis

After the GMAC Bowl, I am revising my evaluation of Nate Davis, and whether I think he should stay at Ball State or bolt for the draft. Take a look:

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Should I stay or should I go?

Of the top dozen QB prospects for this year’s NFL Draft, only four are seniors. Their decision is already made. But for the underclassmen, probably the most important decision of their life awaits: should they go pro or go back to school for another year?

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Pass Tracking: Stafford vs. Bradford

The videos below track every pass attempt made by Stafford and Bradford in one particular game. I’ve charted the short passes, medium passes long passes, and some other things to see how each passer stacks up. One game is a very small sample size, so don’t read too much into these results.

Matthew Stafford vs. Georgia Tech

Total stats: 25-41, 61.0%, 5 td, 1 int

0-7 yards: 14-17, 2 td

7-15 yards: 7-10, 3 td

15-25 yards: 3-7, 1 int

25+ yards: 1-3

*3 throw aways, 1 batted ball, 1 sack

Under center: 7 pass plays

Shotgun: 34 pass plays

Play-action: 6-8

Times pressured: 19

Analysis: He’s got a laser beam for an arm. But we already knew that. How about his accuracy? I’d say it was decent: 14-17 (82.3%) on short throws is pretty impressive, and 7-10 (70.0%) on medium throws is also solid. A couple of those completions weren’t exactly on the mark though. His receivers made some good catches, and he didn’t have any drops. His percentage went down on longer throws, but that is to be expected. The one interception he threw was a pretty awful throw, granted, there was pressure coming. Overall, I’d say his accuracy is adequate. It’s definitely something to work on, but it’s no reason not to draft him.

His pocket presence and decision making weren’t bad at all. Georgia Tech had a pretty healthy pass rush from what I saw, so Stafford was never really able to just sit back in the pocket and wait. He handled it pretty well, aside from a couple mistakes. He should have been sacked for a safety on one play, but somehow scrambled away. He’s not easy to take down, that was evident in a couple plays. He forced a couple throws down the field when he was pressured and Georgia Tech made him pay for it once. It was good to see him throw the ball away a couple times when there was nothing there.

Overall, he really looked like an NFL QB. I never saw him stare down any of his receivers for too long. He made good reads, took some chances down the field, and was very accurate on short passes. He’s should be the first QB taken in the draft.

Sam Bradford vs. Texas Tech

Total stats: 12-17, 70.6%, 4 td, 0 int

0-7 yards: 8-9, 1 drop, 2 td

7-15 yards: 2-4

15-25 yards: 1-2, 1 drop, 1 td

25+ yards: 1-2, 1 td

*1 sack, 2 scrambles

Under center: 8 pass plays

Shotgun: 12 pass plays

Play-action: 4-7, 2 drops

Times pressured: 3

Analysis: He had ALL DAY to throw the ball. He was really only pressured three times, twice when he held on to the ball for a long time looking down the field–on both of those instances he tucked and ran when the defense got to him. The other time, the defensive front got to him pretty quickly, and he was sacked.

His accuracy was dead on. If you take out the drops, he was nearly perfect. That 35 yard bomb he threw couldn’t have been placed any better. Most of the time he hit his receiver in stride allowing for some big runs after the catch. His arm looks strong enough–it’s not like Stafford’s–but it looks like an average NFL arm to me.

He didn’t sell the play action very well, but that is something he can work on. It’s not like he really needs to be great at it, chances are he’s going to have someone open regardless of how well he sells the fake.

Overall, he makes good decisions and is extremely accurate, but Mel Kiper summed it up pretty good when he said scouts have no idea about Bradford because he never faces any pressure behind OU’s front line. He’s somewhat of a mystery, but I think he will make a good pro as long as he isn’t expected to start his first season.

***Special thanks to NFLDraftParty for the YouTube videos.***

Who needs a QB?

These are my own evaluations of which NFL teams are most likely to draft a quarterback. Obviously, just because I think a team should, doesn’t mean they will, especially if that team is the Chicago Bears. And often teams who don’t need a QB will nab one in the later rounds for depth. But this list isn’t about who will simply draft a QB, it’s about who will draft a QB early–in the first 2-3 rounds.

Teams are listed including a current depth chart at QB.

1. Detroit Lions Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, Drew Stanton, Drew Henson

2. San Francisco 49ers J.T. O’Sullivan (FA), Alex Smith, Shaun Hill

3. Tennessee Titans Kerry Collins (FA), Vince Young, Chris Simms (FA)

4. Chicago Bears Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman (FA)

5. St. Louis Rams Trent Green, Mark Bulger, Brock Berlin

6. New York Jets Brett Favre? Kellen Clemens

7. Tampa Bay Bucs Jeff Garcia (FA), Brian Griese, Luke McCown, Josh Johnson

8. Kansas City Chiefs Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard

9. Minnesota Vikings Tavaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte

10. Seattle Seahawks   Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye (FA)

11. Jacksonville Jaguars David Garrard, Cleo Lemon

12. Miami Dolphins Chad Pennington, Chad Henne

13. Arizona Cardinals Kurt Warner (FA), Matt Leinart, Brian St. Pierre

Top Free Agents: Matt Cassel, Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia, Kerry Collins, Charlie Batch, J.T. O’Sullivan, Patrick Ramsey

Whose Bowl performance helped their stock the most?

Winners: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Jevan Snead, Brian Johnson, Mike Teel, Chase Clement

Losers: Graham Harrell, Zac Robinson, Chase Daniel, John Parker Wilson, Tom Brandstater, Cullen Harper, Dan LeFevour

A breakdown of each quarterback’s bowl performance and a verdict of how it will affect their draft stock…

Sam Bradford soph Oklahoma
Stats:
Verdict:

Matthew Stafford junior Georgia
Stats: 20/31  250 yds  8.1 avg  3 td  1 int
Verdict: Rallied his team to three 2nd half scores. Good come from behind performance for him. Solidifies himself as a high first round selection.

Mark Sanchez soph USC
Stats: 28/35  413 yds  11.8 avg  4 td  0 int
Verdict: Of all the QB performances this bowl season, Sanchez’s might just be the best. With a nearly perfect game against a top defense, he has a case to be one of the top three QBs selected in the draft–if he comes out early.

Nate Davis jun Ball State
Stats: 9/29  145 yds  5.0 avg  0 td  1 int  35 rush yds
Verdict: Of all the QB prospects, he probably hurt his draft stock the most. He picked up where he left off in the MAC Championship by putting the ball on the turf multiple times. The weather was atrocious, but he wasn’t able to complete a single pass in the 2nd half. Ouch.

Colt McCoy junior Texas
Stats: 41/59  414 yds  7.0 avg  2 td  1 int
Verdict: With not much going in the running game, it was all on McCoy’s shoulders, and he came through. Against a top 10 defense he completed 69.5% of his passes–that’s impressive. His stock increased after this game. It will be interesting to see if he goes back on his word to stay at Texas.

Jevan Snead soph Ole Miss
Stats: 18/29  292 yds  10.1 avg  3 td  1 int
Verdict: Jumped up the board with a solid performance. Looks to be one of the top QBs selected next year. But would probably be a late 1st/early 2nd round pick if he came out this year.

Tim Tebow junior Florida
Stats:
Verdict:

Graham Harrell senior Texas Tech
Stats: 36/58  364 yds  6.3 avg  4 td  2 int  43 rush yds
Verdict: Put up good numbers but had a couple crucial mistakes and couldn’t get the job done against an underrated Ole Miss team. This performance certainly didn’t help his stock much, but I don’t think it had a huge negative effect either. He’s proven himself on the field, the issues with him are his arm and TTU’s system.

Zac Robinson junior Oklahoma St.
Stats: 27/50  329 yds  6.6 avg  1 td  2 int  54 rush yds
Verdict: Not his best effort–barely completed 50% of his passes and threw two picks. I’d say this loss guarantees his return to OSU next year.

Chase Daniel senior Missouri
Stats: 27/44  200 yds  4.5 avg  2 td  3 int
Verdict: A poor performance by Daniel. In fact, it was one of his worst games ever. But he did come out with a win in the final game of his tremendous college career. Still, this game hurts his stock.

John Parker Wilson senior Alabama
Stats: 18/30  177 yds  5.9 avg  1 td  2 int
Verdict: Hurt his stock. I can’t see him getting drafted–he’s a game manager, but not even a great one at the college level–but stranger things have happened.

Tom Brandstater senior Fresno St.
Stats: 13/23  186 yds  8.1 avg  1 td  1 int
Verdict: Didn’t help his stock, especially with his team losing. At this point, his best friends are the combine and individual workouts where he can show off his cannon arm.

Drew Willy senior Buffalo
Stats: 29/43  213 yds  5.0 avg  0 td  1 int
Verdict: With no running game to speak of, it was all up to Willy, and he did… OK… considering how over matched his team was. His stock didn’t move much after this performance. But I continue to hear more and more about him. He’s got a good head on his shoulders which is vital to success in the NFL. He could sneak up the board with a good combine.

Brian Johnson senior Utah
Stats: 27/41  336 yds  8.2 avg  3 td  0 int
Verdict: Alabama coach Nick Saban said it himself, Johnson was the best QB they faced all season. He played a miraculous game against one of the best defenses in the country. I don’t think he has the arm to play in the NFL, but he’s smart and accurate. This game may lead him to a late round selection.

Chase Clement senior Rice
Stats: 30/44  307 yds  7.0 avg  3 td  0 int  72 rush yds
Verdict: He definitely wowed me in this game, playing nearly flawless. It won’t be his college performances that keep him from being drafted, it will be his lack of an NFL arm. Tremendous college Qb though.

David Johnson senior Tulsa
Stats: 15/25  193 yds  7.7 avg  3 td  0 int  76 rush yds
Verdict: Improved his stock immensely. Needed a good showing after a horrible game against ECU and got it against a struggling Ball State team. Outperforming Nate Davis should certainly help his draft stock.

Case Keenum senior Houston
Stats: 22/33  252 yds  7.6 avg  1 td  1 int
Verdict: Solid. Didn’t help, didn’t hurt. He’ll have to work on his arm strength over the next couple months. Possible late round pick at this point.

Max Hall junior BYU
Stats: 30/46  328 yds  7.1 avg  1 td  1 int
Verdict: Pretty good stats against a solid Arizona defense, except he fumbled twice. Three turnovers isn’t going to help him. He’ll be back for his senior year.

Mike Teel senior Rutgers
Stats: 22/37  319 yds  8.6 avg  2 td  1 int
Verdict: Pretty solid performance from Teel. Add this game to the last half of the season and he’s got some nice momentum rolling into the draft. It may help him sneak into the later rounds of the draft.

Cullen Harper senior Clemson
Stats: 17/37  206 yds  5.6 avg  2 td  2 int
Verdict: A mediocre end to a mediocre year. What was supposed to be a showcase year for Harper ended up being a disaster for his draft stock. He’s got the tools, so an NFL team will give him a shot, but it likely won’t be until the 2nd day of the draft.

Pat White senior West Virginia
Stats: 26/32  332 yds  10.4 avg  3 td  1 int  55 rush yds
Verdict: A fitting way for one of the greatest college football players to end his storied career. He’s not going to play QB in the NFL, but he could easily be the next Randel-El or Boldin to successfully transition to WR.

Dan LeFevour junior C. Michigan
Stats: 28/40  253 yds  6.3 avg  2 td  1 int  56 rush yds
Verdict: It wouldn’t be LeFevour if he didn’t also add 56 yards on the ground. But the fact of the matter is that he couldn’t lead his heavily favored team to a win in what was basically a home game for CMU. This game definitely hurt his already dropping draft stock. He should be back at Mount Pleasant next season.

The Dynamic Dozen