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After the GMAC Bowl, I am revising my evaluation of Nate Davis, and whether I think he should stay at Ball State or bolt for the draft. Take a look:

satyorgodavis

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Should I stay or should I go?

Of the top dozen QB prospects for this year’s NFL Draft, only four are seniors. Their decision is already made. But for the underclassmen, probably the most important decision of their life awaits: should they go pro or go back to school for another year?

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The Dynamic Dozen

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The videos below track every pass attempt made by Stafford and Bradford in one particular game. I’ve charted the short passes, medium passes long passes, and some other things to see how each passer stacks up. One game is a very small sample size, so don’t read too much into these results.

Matthew Stafford vs. Georgia Tech

Total stats: 25-41, 61.0%, 5 td, 1 int

0-7 yards: 14-17, 2 td

7-15 yards: 7-10, 3 td

15-25 yards: 3-7, 1 int

25+ yards: 1-3

*3 throw aways, 1 batted ball, 1 sack

Under center: 7 pass plays

Shotgun: 34 pass plays

Play-action: 6-8

Times pressured: 19

Analysis: He’s got a laser beam for an arm. But we already knew that. How about his accuracy? I’d say it was decent: 14-17 (82.3%) on short throws is pretty impressive, and 7-10 (70.0%) on medium throws is also solid. A couple of those completions weren’t exactly on the mark though. His receivers made some good catches, and he didn’t have any drops. His percentage went down on longer throws, but that is to be expected. The one interception he threw was a pretty awful throw, granted, there was pressure coming. Overall, I’d say his accuracy is adequate. It’s definitely something to work on, but it’s no reason not to draft him.

His pocket presence and decision making weren’t bad at all. Georgia Tech had a pretty healthy pass rush from what I saw, so Stafford was never really able to just sit back in the pocket and wait. He handled it pretty well, aside from a couple mistakes. He should have been sacked for a safety on one play, but somehow scrambled away. He’s not easy to take down, that was evident in a couple plays. He forced a couple throws down the field when he was pressured and Georgia Tech made him pay for it once. It was good to see him throw the ball away a couple times when there was nothing there.

Overall, he really looked like an NFL QB. I never saw him stare down any of his receivers for too long. He made good reads, took some chances down the field, and was very accurate on short passes. He’s should be the first QB taken in the draft.

Sam Bradford vs. Texas Tech

Total stats: 12-17, 70.6%, 4 td, 0 int

0-7 yards: 8-9, 1 drop, 2 td

7-15 yards: 2-4

15-25 yards: 1-2, 1 drop, 1 td

25+ yards: 1-2, 1 td

*1 sack, 2 scrambles

Under center: 8 pass plays

Shotgun: 12 pass plays

Play-action: 4-7, 2 drops

Times pressured: 3

Analysis: He had ALL DAY to throw the ball. He was really only pressured three times, twice when he held on to the ball for a long time looking down the field–on both of those instances he tucked and ran when the defense got to him. The other time, the defensive front got to him pretty quickly, and he was sacked.

His accuracy was dead on. If you take out the drops, he was nearly perfect. That 35 yard bomb he threw couldn’t have been placed any better. Most of the time he hit his receiver in stride allowing for some big runs after the catch. His arm looks strong enough–it’s not like Stafford’s–but it looks like an average NFL arm to me.

He didn’t sell the play action very well, but that is something he can work on. It’s not like he really needs to be great at it, chances are he’s going to have someone open regardless of how well he sells the fake.

Overall, he makes good decisions and is extremely accurate, but Mel Kiper summed it up pretty good when he said scouts have no idea about Bradford because he never faces any pressure behind OU’s front line. He’s somewhat of a mystery, but I think he will make a good pro as long as he isn’t expected to start his first season.

***Special thanks to NFLDraftParty for the YouTube videos.***

Who needs a QB?

These are my own evaluations of which NFL teams are most likely to draft a quarterback. Obviously, just because I think a team should, doesn’t mean they will, especially if that team is the Chicago Bears. And often teams who don’t need a QB will nab one in the later rounds for depth. But this list isn’t about who will simply draft a QB, it’s about who will draft a QB early–in the first 2-3 rounds.

Teams are listed including a current depth chart at QB.

1. Detroit Lions Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, Drew Stanton, Drew Henson

2. San Francisco 49ers J.T. O’Sullivan (FA), Alex Smith, Shaun Hill

3. Tennessee Titans Kerry Collins (FA), Vince Young, Chris Simms (FA)

4. Chicago Bears Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman (FA)

5. St. Louis Rams Trent Green, Mark Bulger, Brock Berlin

6. New York Jets Brett Favre? Kellen Clemens

7. Tampa Bay Bucs Jeff Garcia (FA), Brian Griese, Luke McCown, Josh Johnson

8. Kansas City Chiefs Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard

9. Minnesota Vikings Tavaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte

10. Seattle Seahawks   Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye (FA)

11. Jacksonville Jaguars David Garrard, Cleo Lemon

12. Miami Dolphins Chad Pennington, Chad Henne

13. Arizona Cardinals Kurt Warner (FA), Matt Leinart, Brian St. Pierre

Top Free Agents: Matt Cassel, Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia, Kerry Collins, Charlie Batch, J.T. O’Sullivan, Patrick Ramsey

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